What a crazy weekend in the Middle East!
Here are some quick thoughts on the big news items.
1. Pro-West bloc retains control in Lebanon
What a huge event here. We were on the brink of some very difficult times with Lebanon if Hezbollah had managed to take control of the Parliament. The Obama Administration would have had a very difficult task working with a government run by an organization that has been labelled (correctly) a terrorist organization.
Now the waiting game begins to see how Hezbollah reacts to the defeat at the polls. There has not yet been an official statement made by Hezbollah in reaction to the elections, though one is expected today.
The difficulty isn’t over for the victors, though, due to Lebanon’s power structure. This structure requires that a Shia Muslim lead the Parliament, which strengthens the hand of Hezbollah, despite its deficit of seats, due to the fact that Hezbollah is a Shia-dominated organization.
2. Villagers Fighting Against the Taliban
Can’t wait to see how bin Laden or Zawahiri respond to this. The people of Pakistan are fighting back against the Taliban, the Political Islam government that oppressed the people of Afghanistan for more than twenty years and recently moved into Northwestern Pakistan. Championing Sharia law, very conservative religious regulations that touch on almost every facet of life, the Taliban is aggressive and merciless in spreading its influence.
The defense by the people of Pakistan is clear evidence that even Muslims resist the political Islam that has raged in Afghanistan for so many years, and desire freedom from oppression, in all forms.
3. Iranian Election
The story with the greatest potential for impacting the United States is building as we approach the June 12th Presidential election for Iran. Polls are showing that Iranians want improved relations with the United States and greater democratic freedom. To quote from the CNN story on the survey,
“Regardless of whom they may vote for, the No. 1 priority Iranians have for their government is improving the Iranian economy, very closely followed by ensuring free elections, a free press and better trade and relations with the West.”
More than 70% of Iranians favor agreeing not to pursue nuclear weapons and providing full inspections in return for outside aid and investment. This is a belief I’ve personally held for some time, that most Iranians, despite their cartoonish description as the US hate-mongers, truly want to interact with the wider world, and are willing to sacrifice a military asset like nuclear weapons to get it. 54% of Iranians still want to pursue a nuclear weapon, though less than half believe it should be a priority. Nuclear energy is something favored by 94% of Iranians.
And while 60% support Iranians assisting Iraqi Shiite militias, 54% would agree to end that support as part of a deal with the United States.
What the survey shows is that average Iranian is not your crazed, brainwashed, suicide bomber in waiting. They want greater freedom, better elections, more interaction with the world, and specifically the United States, and while they retain the Arab-culture mistrust of Israel and support of Hezbollah and Shiite Iraqi militias, they are willing to sacrifice that support in return for better relations with the US and aid and investment.
There is an opportunity to greatly improve relations with Iran, the gorilla in the Middle East and a longtime vocal enemy of the US, and inspiration for many political Islam movements.
