Osama bin Laden

Osama bin Laden released a new audio tape which received wide news coverage. The tape blames the US for the violence in the region and threatens continued violence if America insists on supporting Israel among other things. The tape is believed to be several weeks old, which is understandable since bin Laden is believed to either be at the end of a long road that literally just ends in the mountains of Pakistan, or at the end of a long road that literally just ends in the mountains of Pakistan.

While bin Laden is just continuing the same type of rhetoric he has for years, it seems to me that his power of conversion is waning. Yes, he’s still recruiting fighters; yes, there are still battles going on in Iraq and Afghanistan, but to assume that he’s leading these battles in any meaningful way doesn’t make sense. Further, the fact that he’s sitting back in a cave complex has to be hurting his freedom fighter image that he earned leading troops against the Soviets in Afghanistan, and then against the world in Sudan and later in Afghanistan again pre-9/11.

He is being shown as someone content to sit back and direct troops, a persona that has never garnered a great deal of support or pride from the troops.

Richard Holbrooke, US Special Envoy to Pakistan and India, responded to the tape:

“The idea that anyone is responsible for the refugee crisis other than al Qaeda and the Taliban and the other people who have caused such tragedy in western Pakistan is ludicrous,” he said. “This entire problem begins with al Qaeda and its associates, and everybody in the world knows that, and it’s silly to even respond to such a ludicrous charge.”

He’s right, and the world, even the Arab world, is catching on. The fact that this new tape isn’t getting much publicity (yes I realize the irony of the statement) is all the more reason to believe that his stature is reduced.

Saudi Arabia agrees. Here’s an excerpt from the Al Jazeera report on the bin Laden tapes:

“It’s an act of desperation,” Nial al-Jubeir, a Saudi information ministry official, told AFP news agency.

“They are still making their statements while hiding in a cave,” he said.

An act of desperation is exactly right. Desperate for help, desperate for attention, desperate to make sure the world knows that he’s even still alive. He might be, but his organization is dying under the weight of their rhetoric and hate. I don’t believe any organization based solely on hate and destruction can ever survive for long, and there’s not much else to Al-Qaeda.